Eels Dribbler Reckons Parra are in Red Hot Form
by Jordan Forbes
There are three events each year I enjoy more than any other; Christmas, tax return and Eels late-season form slump. At one point in time, the Parramatta Eels were the laughing stock of the NRL, collecting back to back wooden spoons in 2012/13. Now they continued to be laughed at as they failed to get past the second week in their last 3 finals appearances, despite finishing in the top 4 on two occasions. While most clubs would love to be on the ladder position that the Eels have found themselves in recent years, they have yet to leave a mark on the competition, and 2021 has been no different.
With their recent result being an absolute thumping from the top 4 bound Manly “Tommy Turbo” Sea Eagles, many pundits around the rugby league media landscape have weighed in on “What’s the matter with Parramatta”. Some have claimed it’s been in-fighting. Others point to their early season success as a sign that they have “peaked” too early. But for me, I believe that the Eels are not currently in a dramatic downfall, but are simply settling into the place l that they should have been all along.
When comparing the Eels’ 2021 season so far to the likes of the Storm, Panthers and Rabbitohs, the three clubs who are clearly ahead of the rest of the competition, it is clear that the Eels were never in the same conversation.
When simply looking at Parramatta’s for and against for this season compared to the other three teams, they stand out as the odd team out. The Eels average a solid 24.4 games per match, trailing the Panthers who average 27.7. The Storm and Rabbitohs blew both of them out of the water with massive 35.4 and 32.8 average respectively.
Now you might be looking at the Eels for average and think it is not so bad when compared to Premiership heavyweights Panthers, and you would be right. That is until you consider the average points against. The Panther back up their lower for average with just an average of 12 points per game against them, while the Eels are at 18.6. The Storm again massively edged out the Eels with a 12.3 average. The Eels however do beat out the Rabbitohs who have a 19 point average, but as shown before, the Rabbitohs have the attack to combat their higher defensive average.
With the 2021 competition, the ladder can be categorized a multiple of different ways. I like to consider the top 4, top 8, 7-12 (which in this case are all those teams still fighting for a finals position), the bottom 8 and bottom 4. With these categories, the overview of the Eels season really starts to take shape. The Eels dominate the bottom 4 sides, and hold a solid record over the bottom 8 as a whole as well as those middle teams who are fighting for those final two places in the 8. When looking past that, their performance against the top teams start to fall apart.
When against top 4 teams this season, they have scored a Round 2 win against the Premiership favourite Storm, and in Round 9 they noticed up a controversial win against the injury ravaged Roosters. While their 2 from 6 record against the top 4 teams is better than the Rabbitohs’ 1 from 4, the Eels’ win percentage does not dramatically improve when looking at the top 8 in total. They have only won 4 from 10 games against the current top 8 sides. Compare that to the Rabbitohs where their 1 from 4 against top 4 teams dramatically improves to 7 from 10 against all top 8 teams.
Not only is the Eels’ win percentage against top 8 sides quite poor, their average margin also lacks what it takes to be a top line team in 2021. They hold a -9.7 point average margin against the top 4 teams, with a slight improvement to -7.2 when looking at all the top 8 teams. Compare that to the Rabbitohs who hold a dramatic -23 against the top 4 teams due to their dual 50 point floggings, they have dished out their own floggings against the remaining top 8 teams to bring their average margin into the positives at 2.2.
Now these stats are all nice to show that the Eels statistically are not a top team, however up until last weekend, they had sat comfortably in the top 4, so where has this “downfall” come from? In short, they are not in a downfall but simply falling into the position that most accurately represents their season. Looking back over the Eels’ 2021 season, there are many of Parramatta’s wins that aren’t as clear cut as they appear on paper.
In Round 1, the Eels kicked off their 2021 season by squeaking out a 24-16 win against the 2020’s wooden spooners, the Broncos. While many have agreed the 2021 Bronco’s outfit is one much improved on the 2020 edition, the Eels were in a massive shock when heading into the sheds at half time down 16-0. While they managed to get the win from a second half fightback, it wasn’t a performance for the fans to be overly happy about.
In Round 3, on paper the Eels had a convincing 28-4 win against the Sharks but it was far from that. The Sharks had lost four players by half time, leaving them with no bench for the entire second half. Despite that, the Eels only led 12-4 up until the 69th minute before piling on 3 late tries, all of which would have been considered soft tries had it not been for a tired defensive line.This game was the main driving point behind the NRL introducing the 18th man just a week later. While there is no assurance that the 18th man would have changed the result of this game, it certainly would have helped the Sharks put up a better fight and prevented the late blowout.
In Round 9, the Eels controversially beat the Roosters 31-18. Already down on troops, the Roosters trailed 18-10 heading into halftime before Parramatta’s Niukore was put on report for a shoulder charge that collected Tedesco high. It was also in that play that Dylan Brown drove legs into Hutchson which saw him rushed to hospital with a collapsed lung. Despite both Niukore and Brown receiving lengthy suspensions, neither player was binned on the night which prevented the Roosters from activating their 18th man. The outrage from many fans and media outlets led to the NRL implementing the Magic Round crackdown, which in itself collected a new set of negativity from the fans and pundits of the game. Again, even if either of these players were binned, the Eels may have still walked away with the result, but I feel that many punters who took the 13+ would not have been receiving their payouts.
While these are only three of the Eels 13 total wins, there are many games which saw the Eels fail to run away with a game they appeared to be in complete control of. Despite 2021 being the year of blow outs, Parramatta have only crossed the 40 mark three times, none of which they were able to convert in a 50. The Eels are not in a downfall, they are simply playing the real top teams at the back end of the year, which have shone the light on how they have really been tracking and allowed the team to slide down the ladder to a position that truly reflects the season they have had.
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