How a Professional Punter ‘Moneyballed’ Brentford all the way to the Premier League
DYOR Dave
The English Premier League is back for another year, and as crowds returned to the stands, they were treated to an upset for the ages. In the opening match of the 2021/22 season, newcomers Brentford beat heavyweights Arsenal 2-0 in their first top league game in 74 years. This result may stand out to many as an anomaly, but in fact, it caps off an incredible journey for the club, who ascended to the pinnacle of British sport in an unlikely fashion.
Mathew Benham was a lifelong fan of the West-London club, and when his beloved Bees were facing financial hardship in 2007, it was a no-brainer to loan the club a measly $700,000. After all, Benham had enjoyed a successful career as Vice President of Bank of America before pivoting into the gambling industry. He spent time developing analytic gambling models under the tutelage of ‘billionaire gambler’ Tony Bloom (no relation) before starting his own betting syndicate, Smartodds, in 2004.
The loan he made came with a condition. If the fans were unable to repay him, he would have the option to purchase the club, and in 2012, he took over the reins. Being the business-savvy man that he is, Benham also purchased Danish club FC Midtjylland to use as guinea pigs for his revolutionary ideas. After clearing house at both clubs, Benham replaced the staff with analysts and mathematicians, who developed new sets of performance indicators to reshape the direction of the clubs. For example, wins and losses were largely ignored, while stats like “expected goals” were prioritised, with the justification being that the quality and quantity of chances mattered more than actual goals, which often came down to randomness and luck.
The new owner’s most controversial move came when he effectively eliminated Brentford’s youth academy, instead focusing more on a reserve-grade side made up of 17-20-year-olds that were discarded from other clubs. Benham worked out that young players need around 35 games of experience to determine their value, and while bigger clubs didn’t have the time or patience to wait, Brentford welcomed the experiment, and it paid off handsomely. Ollie Watkins, Neal Maupay and Said Benrahma were purchased for a combined $8.2 million, and after a few years with Brentford, were sold for $102 million altogether.
It’s not just the players that are paying dividends to the club that gave them a chance, but Brentford’s promotion into the Premier League will see the club earn around $300 million during its first season, and even more if it can stay in the top league. Not bad for a town whose most famous export was fictional rapper MC Grindah and his pirate radio station Kurupt FM. After starting their season in the best possible way, Brentford have set themselves up for a fairy tale run that could rival Leicesters’ 2015/16 effort. But only time will tell whether this punting experiment will take them all the way to glory.
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